Employment Trends

Article by: Elizabeth
Last updated: Tuesday, 11-Jul-2006 00:00:00 CEST

According to employment trends issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, Labour Force Survey, August 2004), during the last three years to August 2004, the strongest trend in employment growth was recorded within the retail trade, wholesale trade, manufacturing, education and property/business services industry sectors. This was offset by employment declines in the accommodation/cafes/restaurant, electricity/gas/water supply, communication services and manufacturing sectors.


WESTERN AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS SUMMARY

Employment trends projections by Monash University and NIEIR differ slightly as a result of the different forecasting methodologies and economic assumptions adopted.


Industries Expected to Experience Strongest Employment Growth to 2007/08

Occupations to Experience Strongest Employment Growth to 2007/08
Over the next three years trends show the strongest employment growth is expected within the following occupational groupings: the professionals, associate professionals and intermediate clerical/sales/service workers. In term of specific occupations, strong demand is predicted for computing professionals, accountants, secondary/primary school teachers, busi ness/organisation analysts, registered nurses, specialist medical practitioners, general clerks, personal care/nursing assistants, waiters, education aides, special care workers, receptionists, construction tradespeople, electrical/electronics tradespersons, mechanical/fabrication engineering tradespersons, office managers, project/program administrators, real estate associate managers, shop managers, computing support managers, sales assistants, checkout operators/cashiers, cleaners, kitchenhands, handypersons, forklift/truck drivers, storepersons, miners, sales/marketing managers, livestock farmers and bookkeepers.

Qualifications to Experience Strongest Employment Growth to 2007/08
Employees who hold Bachelor or higher qualifications will experience the strongest employment growth, while those with no post-school qualifications are projected to fare less well than the average. In time trends in statistics show the number of people with post secondary qualifications will rise, leading to a more professionally educated Western Australian workforce.


OVERVIEW OF INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND FORECASTS 1998/99 – 2008/09


The table below provides a summary of the trends that employment levels and employment growth in Western Australia’s industries have shown based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics data at August 2004. The table also provides a comparison of the employment trends forecasts by industry sector produced by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR, November 2004) and Monash University (June 2004), for the period 2004/05 to 2007/08.

Western Australian Industry Sectors

Current
Workforce1

Actual
Employment
Growth
2000/1 - 2003/4

Trends Forecast Employment
Growth 2004/05 -2007/08

(000's)

(000's)

(000's)

(000's)

Australian Bureau of Statistics

Monash

NIEIR

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

46.6

0.4

3.0

0.6

Mining

40.1

7.0

-0.8

1.5

Manufacturing

91.4

-0.1

5.3

3.7

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply

7.2

-1.1

0.0

0.1

Construction

83.1

4.3

1.4

4.3

Wholesale Trade

49.6

8.1

3.7

3.5

Retail Trade

151.5

18.2

4.4

14.3
Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants

38.9

-8.7

-0.3

4.9

Transport and Storage

43.7

0.5

3.1

0.8

Communication Services

13.2

-0.8

0.6

0.9

Finance and Insurance

27.4

2.6

0.4

-0.2

Property and Business Services

113.9

5.4

16.0

16.0

Government Administration and Defence

36.8

0.7

1.0

1.4

Education

72.9

6.9

4.1

5.0

Health and Community Services

95.0

3.7

2.8

5.9

Cultural and Recreational Services

22.5

2.9

2.5

4.4

Personal and Other Services

42.9

4.8

-0.2

4.3

Total all industries

976.4

54.9

47.2

71.4


According to the ABS, the trends shown during the last three years to August 2004, indicate 73.2% of new employment positions were created within the retail trade (18,200 new jobs), wholesale trade (8,100), manufacturing (7,000) and education (6,900) industry sectors. Of the four industries experiencing a decline in employment during this period, the accommodation, cafes and restaurants industry experienced the largest job loss with a decline of some 8,700 jobs.

For the next three year period to 2007/08, Monash University trends forecasts strong employment growth within the property/business services (16,000 new jobs), manufacturing (5,300), retail trade (4,400), education (4,100) and wholesale trade (3,700) sectors. In contrast, Monash predicts that employment will decline in the mining, accommodation/cafes/restaurant and personal/other services sectors.

NIEIR, over the next three year period, forecasts that the strongest employment growth will occur in the property/business services (16,000 new jobs), retail trade (14,300), health/community services (5,900), education (5,00) and accommodation/cafes/restaurant (4,900) industries. The only sector expected to face job loses in the next three years, according to NIEIR, is finance and insurance.

Employment projections by Monash University and NIEIR differ slightly as a result of the different forecasting methodologies, economic assumptions adopted and timing. NIEIR expects 71,400 new jobs created over the next three years in Western Australia compared to 47,200 jobs projected by Monash.







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